< 1 min read Piet Streicher of Pandemic Data Analytics talks to Refilwe Moloto about what we can actually read into announcements by the Western Cape Health authorities that they are seeing signs that infection rates in the province are no longer accelerating.
< 1 min read South Africa’s epidemiological models have proven to be wildly inaccurate. A new commentary by international modellers explains why Covid-19 models are a poor basis for decision-making, while South Africa’s own modellers try, but fail, to explain themselves.
< 1 min read PANDA is receiving a slew of requests from doctors, hospital administrators and journalists all over the country who had become frustrated with the NICD’s guidance and wanted a steer from us on what they should plan for. We are a small, not-for-profit business staffed by part-time volunteers, and do not yet have the infrastructure to deal with such requests, as much as we’d like to.
< 1 min read The first official prediction of how many ICU beds would be used in the Western Cape by Covid-19 patients, made back in May, overestimated by between 12 times and 16.5 times the critical care beds needed.
< 1 min read A conversation between Nick Hudson, Russell Lamberti and Peter Castleden about the Politics, Philosophy and Economics at play during the Covid-19 crisis in South Africa.
< 1 min read In this second article in our series on the faulty science of South Africa’s modellers, we take up where our first article left off.
By Piet Streicher, Shayne Krige and Nick Hudson
< 1 min read Part I: reviewing the models used to justify lockdown.
By Nick Hudson, Shayne Krige and Ian McGorian*
2 min read One of the most interesting features of the COVID-19 outbreak is the stark difference between mortality experience in different countries. This working document explores some simple and plausible explanations.
< 1 min read Just as one group of modellers goes to ground after getting things catastrophically wrong for foreseeable reasons, a new one emerges to repeat the trick. A game of modeller whack-a-mole, anybody?
< 1 min read Shayne Krige and Nick Hudson Business Day: Katharine Child
